ChatGPT Whistleblower: They Offered Me $2m To Keep Quiet, No One Is Ready For What's Coming!
Former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo lays out why he believes superintelligent AI arrives by the end of the decade — and what the pace of growth at Anthropic suggests about the speed of the transition.
1 / 5at 3:23 · Yank's paraphrase
My median estimate, a 50% chance, is currently in 2029.
AI Summary
A guest speaking on The Diary Of A CEO, identified as someone who believes superintelligence is coming within years, explains his mission to help humanity prepare for it. He estimates a 50% chance superintelligence arrives by 2029, defining it as AI surpassing the best humans at everything while being faster, cheaper, and capable of operating robots in the physical world. He argues the pace of growth matters more than the exact timeline, citing Anthropic's revenue growing roughly 60x in a single year as evidence, and warns that even slowed growth puts AI on track to encompass the entire economy by around 2030.
Yank Summary
What matters, in Yank’s words, each linked to where the source says it.
The guest's median estimate gives a 50% chance superintelligence arrives in 2029, though he allows it could take up to 10 years.
He defines superintelligence as AI better than the best humans at everything, faster and cheaper, and able to operate robots surpassing humans physically.
My median estimate, a 50% chance, is currently in 2029.
The speaker pins superintelligence to a specific year, turning an abstract fear into a concrete personal forecast with a named probability.
In context
then we need to prepare, and we need to think about how to make it go well instead of poorly. So, that's sort of my answer is like, I'm doing that to the best of my ability. >> So, you believe it's coming in a few years? >> Yes. >> How could you be so sure? >> I spend a lot of time trying to forecast this sort of thing. My sort of median estimate, a 50% chance, is currently in 2029. Maybe it'll slip to 2028. It's possible that it'll take significantly longer, like maybe 10 years or something like that. But, uh you know, for reasons I'm happy to get into, seems to me like
My median estimate, a 50% chance, is currently in 2029.
Receipt
Anthropic this time last year was making something like a billion dollars a year. And they're making something like 60 billion dollars a year. So that's 60x growth in 1 year.
Anthropic's 60x revenue growth in one year serves as the speaker's main empirical evidence that the trend is real and accelerating.
In context
longer, like maybe 10 years or something like that. But, uh you know, for reasons I'm happy to get into, seems to me like it's probably happening by the end of the decade. Which less important is the the sense of how close we are. What's more important is the pace of the trends. Anthropic this time last year was making something like a billion dollars a year. And they're making something like 60 billion dollars a year. So that's 60x growth in 1 year, which is extremely impressive even for very small startups, but for a company
Receipt
Even if growth slows down quite a lot, Anthropic is still on track to be the entire economy by 2030 or so.
Projecting Anthropic to equal the entire economy by 2030 shows listeners the civilizational scale of what the growth curve implies.
In context
Anthropic this time last year was making something like a billion dollars a year. And they're making something like 60 billion dollars a year. So that's 60x growth in 1 year, which is extremely impressive even for very small startups, but for a company of their size, it might be the fastest growth in history. Um we expect that rate of growth to slow down, but even if it slows down quite a lot, they're still on track to be, you know, the entire economy by 2030 or so. >> Why should the average person care? >> The high-level thing is absolutely
growth to slow down, but Even if it growth slows down quite a lot, they're Anthropic is still on track to be you know, the entire economy by 2030 or so.
Receipt
What's more important than how close we are is the pace of the trends.
The speaker reframes the conversation: the arrival date matters less than the rate of acceleration driving toward it.
In context
2029. Maybe it'll slip to 2028. It's possible that it'll take significantly longer, like maybe 10 years or something like that. But, uh you know, for reasons I'm happy to get into, seems to me like it's probably happening by the end of the decade. Which less important is the the sense of how close we are. What's more important is the pace of the trends. Anthropic this time last year was making something like a billion dollars a year. And they're making something like 60 billion dollars a year. So that's 60x growth in 1 year,
close we are. What's more important than how close we are is the pace of the trends.
Receipt
AIs better than the best humans at everything — faster, cheaper, able to operate robots that can do everything humans can do, but better, faster, and cheaper.
Defining superintelligence in concrete physical and economic terms sets up why preparation, not curiosity, is the appropriate response.
In context
um what is your mission? And why? >> So, what would you do if you thought that superintelligence was coming in a few years? >> I guess it depends what the consequences were. >> Well, let's talk about it. So, superintelligence, AIs that are better than the best humans at everything, while also being faster and cheaper, also able to operate robots that can do everything in the physical world that humans can do, but better, faster, and cheaper. If that really is coming in a few years, then we need to prepare, and we need to think about how to make it go well
AIs better than the best humans at everything while also being — faster, and cheaper, also able to operate robots that can do everything humans can do, but better, faster, and cheaper.
Receipt
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