Ukraine’s battlefield optimism is ebbing as Russia threatens its ‘fortress belt’
A front-line press officer and conflict analysts describe how Russia's slow, destructive grind is eroding Ukraine's last eastern strongholds — not through breakthrough, but through annihilation.
1 / 5In the article · Yank's paraphrase
Everyone walks around with a rifle, goes out for a coffee with a rifle, heads to the store with a rifle — because drones are everywhere now and you never know.
Everyone walks around with a rifle, goes out for a coffee with a rifle, heads to the store with a rifle — because drones are everywhere now and you never know.
A frontline press officer shows how omnipresent drone threats have militarized even mundane daily life in Kramatorsk.
In context
“The attacks happen dozens of times a day. Dozens of cars, utility buildings, residential buildings, administrative buildings, and garages have been hit; they’re just setting everything on fire,” Rybakova, who serves as a press officer with Ukraine’s 93rd mechanized brigade and is based in Kramatorsk, told CNN on Monday. “Toward the evening and in the morning, almost no one is out and about,” she said. “During the day, there are gunmen everywhere … everyone walks around with a rifle, goes out for a coffee with a rifle, heads to the store with a rifle and so on because drones are everywhere now and you never know. They can strike at any moment.”
Everyone walks around with a rifle, goes out for a coffee with a rifle, heads to the store with a rifle and so on — because drones are everywhere now and you never know.
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The Russian military cannot take over cities in a quick offensive that leaves infrastructure intact. Instead, Moscow wages slow, grinding warfare that renders them uninhabitable.
Explains Russia's strategic logic: deliberate destruction makes cities undefendable rather than captureable, defining the war's character.
In context
The fortress belt has slowly eroded over the past four and a half years. Its southernmost anchor, Kostyantynivka, has now been effectively lost as a stronghold. The Russians have spent almost a year trying to seize it and, while pockets of Ukrainian resistance remain in the north of the city, any operational value for Kyiv is long gone. It’s a recurring theme along the front lines. The Russian military cannot take over cities and towns in a quick offensive that leaves most of the infrastructure intact. Instead, Moscow wages slow, grinding warfare that renders them uninhabitable.
The Russian military cannot take over cities and towns in a quick offensive that leaves most of the infrastructure intact. Instead, Moscow wages slow, grinding warfare that renders them uninhabitable.
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Just last night, they bombed the house where I used to live. We moved out a few months ago and it's just completely destroyed there now.
A soldier's personal loss anchors the abstract pattern of urban destruction in lived, immediate experience.
In context
Kramatorsk has long served as a strategic rear point for the Ukrainian units serving along the eastern front lines – and as a place to which exhausted troops can retreat for a few days of rest before their next mission. But that is no longer an option. “There’s shelling here every day. Guided bombs, a massive barrage, eight at a time,” Rybakova said. “Just last night, they bombed the house where I used to live. We moved out of there a few months ago and it’s just completely destroyed there now.” As Russia continues to inch towards these cities, the remaining residents fear Moscow is laying the ground for a future attack.
Just last night, they bombed the house where I used to live. We moved out of there a few months ago and it's just completely destroyed there now.
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At their current pace, Russian forces would not take over Donetsk until 2032 — if they can seize it at all.
ISW's projection frames Russia's territorial ambitions as a decades-long endeavor, casting doubt on any near-term Russian victory.
In context
Russia advanced or infiltrated into about 124 square kilometers (47.8 square miles) of Ukraine’s territory in August, roughly a quarter of the amount of terrain it seized in the same month last year, according to ISW. ISW has calculated that at their current pace, Russian forces would not take over Donetsk until 2032 — if they can seize it at all. This is a glacial pace, and it comes at a massive cost to Moscow. Western intelligence services estimate Russia is losing some 40,000 troops a month – a rate of roughly 340 casualties for every square kilometer.
At their current pace, Russian forces would not take over Donetsk until 2032 — if they can seize it at all.
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Russia is losing roughly 340 casualties for every square kilometer of ground it takes.
Quantifies the human cost Moscow pays per square kilometer, exposing the brutal exchange rate behind Russia's slow advance.
In context
ISW has calculated that at their current pace, Russian forces would not take over Donetsk until 2032 — if they can seize it at all. This is a glacial pace, and it comes at a massive cost to Moscow. Western intelligence services estimate Russia is losing some 40,000 troops a month – a rate of roughly 340 casualties for every square kilometer. But unfortunately for Ukraine, Russia is chipping away at the so-called “fortress belt” in the east, a string of four industrial cities that form the backbone of Ukraine’s eastern defenses.
Russia is losing some 40,000 troops a month – a rate of roughly 340 casualties for every square kilometer of ground it takes.
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